BTW Q&A: Bay Trade Backlash

The following is an email from WG.  I broke out the email in sections so I could reply.  My responses are in bold.

Let me preface this with, I am not going to attempt to change WG nor anyone's mind.  I am simply going to respond to his point with my feeling and my take on each point.

Dave, I've been a  Buc fan for over 40 years. My Dad's family is from Washington area and I have loved, cried and suffered with all Pirate fans even though I am living in the Pollution Garden right now( N.J). I understand the Bay trade for what promise it brings, but this is it for me. Over the years , players you like come and go....Hebner, Zisk, Lacy, Robinson, DeLeon, Wagner , Randa...now, Bay. You understand that is the nature of the business. But I honestly see this as another cleverly disguised salary dump for prospects.

Wow, 40 years.  There has been a lot of heartache in those years.  In past years, I would wholeheartedly agree with the salary dump premise.  I honestly can't see that in this scenario.  If it was a salary dump, I would think a deal would have been made before 3:59, mere seconds before the deadline.  If this was a dump the Pirates would have received Bobby Hill and Jose Hernandez.  Sorry for that flashback.

The players NH signed or wanted to sign over the winter ( Sanchez, LaRoche, Snell and Capps) are not players that will put this team over the hump. Bay is special and he should have been part of the future. Bay is a rare player with outstanding skill and quality besides being a top level person. He is only 30 in Sept, but the Pirates are overtly getting younger.

Sanchez had back to back .300 seasons and a batting title, LaRoche has not been extended yet, Snell is the ace of the staff and Capps is the closer for some time to come but only signed an arbitration contract.  Of the players who were mentioned, I do think Snell has the potential to be an impact pitcher for years to come.  He is too competitive to allow the oddity of 2008 to happen again in 2009.  I honestly believe Snell is suffering from overuse by Tracy last year.  Snell is not the only pitcher in the majors to have an off year after overuse in 2007.  Capps is a rare find in a young closer, until his injury he was nearly spotless in save situations.  I would consider that an impact.

I believe this is not just a talent issue, but a money issue again. I have seen this routine so many times with the Pirates that this slant is just a way to say "we trade our best players again if they get a bit too expensive" no matter what the PR blurts out.

If there were not the quantity and quality of prospects returned for Bay, he would not have been traded.  This move happened because two teams wanted to get a deal done and the Pirates had the missing ingredient in Bay.

Pittsburgh deserves better. It is the best city in the East and perhaps the nation. The people are real and faithful to their clubs. Michael Keaton was right a few years back on opening day when he said he was sick of Pirate ownership using the fan base and not caring about winning.

Pittsburgh is a one of a kind place, it truly is a great city, because of the people. 

I still am not sold on ownership caring about winning, but Coonelly and Huntington are not the types who would take a job to just make a paycheck.  They are here to get this franchise back to where it belongs using a good model.  The real test is if they stick to that model.  To date, they have been truthful about building a franchise to compete long haul not just freak show instances.  Neither man wants to lose. 

I'm sure this crew will get the Pirates around .500 or over. I'm pretty sure when you keep trading away your best players for infinite promise and DO NOT spend $$$ on free agency, winning is very secondary. This isn't just the last 16 years...we have had owners who wouldn't pay great players ( Gossage, Madlock, Hebner etc) in the past, but this is beyond my limits.

A team like the Pirates will never build a team through free agency.  Look where it has got the Mets, Mariners or Astros.  Their minor leagues are barren and their teams are nowhere near where they should be for all the moves they have made in the FA market or trade market.  They have big names and high price tags, but no sustainable success.  Even the Yankees, for all the $$$ they spend needed to make some big deals to try and make a run.  Their payroll was already nearly twice what the second highest payroll was.  Have you seen a Yankee championship since they started trying to buy the world?

Free agency is a Band-Aid or a move to get over the top knowing you are close.

There is a reason Minnesota, Oakland and Anaheim are always contending.  They have strong minor leagues that feed the Majors.  This year is the first time I can remember Anaheim making any big moves at the deadline that cost prospects.  Prospects are the way to build a successful franchise, not free agency.  Boston figured that out in recent years and have a deep system to go with a nice payroll.  When you build a team right, and you have depth, you can start spending in the FA market to make a run and supplement the talent you have.

Don't forget the draft this year has some talented players that were drafted that would never have happened with Littlfield running the show.  He wanted the safe and cheap pick.  Alvarez is neither.  But he is very talented.  This teams farm system is starting to look a lot better, and this is only Huntington's first year on the job.  A few more good to great drafts, and maybe a couple more nice deals and you may get your wish to fill needs with free agents.

I love the Pirates and rarely miss a game. I Tivo games when I have to work late, go to Philly and Shea when they are in town...but I'm pretty sure this is it for me when Bay was traded. I honestly believe Doumit and Nate will be  gone3-4 years from now in July. Proof??? think back to 2004...did anyone see a NL Rookie of the year getting traded away in 2008. You'll see...

In 2004 the minors were nearly as barren as they were coming into 2008.  Littlefield figured out a way to make the desert even drier.  Huntington has to use anything at his disposal to build the team and add depth.  If there is no depth in 3 or 4 years...Huntington is failing and the next GM would be making those deals to try to get a farm system worth anything.  Based on his first year in charge, I don't see another GM running the ship in 3 or 4 years.

A lot of Pirate fans I spoke with when Bay signed his long term deal immediately called he would not make it to the end of the contract.  As for anyone expecting Bay to continue to be as good as he was after his rookie year, I don't think anyone actually expected that he would have as solid of a career with the Pirates that he did.  Heck, most people were still complaining "the Pirates traded Giles for who?" during Bays rookie year.   ROY does not guarantee a great career, but it is a good start to one.

BTW, Wilson is next and Sanchez will soon follow over the winter if they can get anything for him.

Unless Sanchez can get his average into the .280-.290 range by years end, there is no way Huntington could get good value for him.  I do not see Huntington selling Sanchez low.  Andy LaRoche could play second if needed, but Sanchez will be held onto much like Bay and Nady in hopes of increasing his value before he would ever be traded.

There has not been a real good market for Wilson in the last few years.  He has a stigma as being a glove with little bat.  Unless there is a major injury to a shortstop on a contending team Wilson will not get moved anytime soon.  There are too many good shortstops who have a better bat that Jack that are more attractive to most GM's.

I hate to see you give up on the Pirates when it seems the ship is starting to turn around and i hope to continue to get emails from you about the Pirates.  The shortcoming of the 2008 version was pitching.  If you look at the current 25 man roster, there are quite a few different arms from opening day with a few that are hard throwers.  Something that was sorely missed at any time in the last decade or two.  With the recent trades there are even more arms ready and willing in the minors.

It is true the offense is quite a bit weaker now, but they are still going to put up some runs.  Adam LaRoche is finally in his peak part of the season.  Doumit continues to rake.  Nate is exactly what everyone but Littlefield and his cronies thought he would be.  A good MLB hitter.  I am still amazed at how clutch he is.  Andrew McCutchen is not far away.  Pearce is now up to see what he can actually do with an honest chance to earn a spot.  There will still be some good offensive showings, but the pitching is deeper and may get significantly better these last two months.

Sometimes being a Pirates fan is like being in alcoholics anonymous, you have to take every day one at a time and work through the jitters and setbacks until finally you can stand on your own two feet and proclaim ....

"Hi, I am Dave and I have been a fan for 32 years..."

Something Fishy, By the Bay, Getting Deep

Something Fishy:

The Sun-Sentinel is "reporting" Ryan Doumit is one of four catchers targeted by the Marlins before the deadline.

BTW Take:

The article mentions the Pirates have Paulino in the minors who was their starting catcher, inferring there is depth in the system.  They also say John Grabow would have to be part of the deal.  Two problems, Paulino (last I checked) was on the DL and working his way back.  Second, Paulino has fallen out of favor with management and coaches. 

Of all the players on the Pirates, the one that is least likely to be moved is Doumit.  He is still controlled for 3 more years, so the Marlins would have to absolutely sell the farm to get him.  I don't see that happening and I do not see Huntington trading away useful parts for the future just for a few more bodies in the minors considering the lack of depth at catcher in the minors.

Doumit does not get moved, at least until he has less that 2 years guaranteed with the team left.  There is no way he is moved before 2010 trade deadline.

Bay By The Bay?:

Dejan reports at the PG that Tampa and other parties are in deep trade talks over Jason Bay.

BTW Take:

Bay to the Rays makes sense for both teams, considering Bay is signed through next season, he is not a rental to Tampa.  Tampa has a DEEP farm.  Perfect match.  Let's see what happens.

It's Getting Deep:

Joe Starkey at the Trib has a good column up on what should happen before the deadline with an excellent quote from Doug Mientkiewicz:

"The franchise has to get deeper," said Mientkiewicz, who has experienced big-league baseball's high-revenue (Boston, New York) and low-revenue (Minnesota, Kansas City) districts. "They have to get a lot more talent in the minor-league system to be competitive. I think we're all seeing now that this franchise is very limited in talent at the higher levels.

"The only way you're going to get better as a big-league team is to get deep in the minor leagues. You have to be 28 to 35 (players) strong in order to be competitive."

"This isn't a one-year project," Mientkiewicz said. "You have to give them time, because the people who were here before were ... "

With that, Mientkiewicz just shook his head...

Quote from a reader:

Understand the concept that the team has to get more prospects. TBay probably is only team right now able to pry Bay. My point is Bay is ONE veteran they should keep, at least until next August because without him, Nate and Doumit become weighted down with expectations. Pirates will not get ANYONE in trade or FA with Bay value and character in next 4-5 years. Tabata may be high ceiling but also very high risk. Pirate fans are so used to seeing players dumped, their mindset has become "let's trade away all our vets and start over". ...that being said, I honestly believe Huntington has had no intention of keeping Bay from day one and he will be dealt today or Wed....this team got an o.K. return for Nady/Marte, but they really could have got more( I live in Trenton area and have seen all 4 play). THey will take less for Bay and 3 years from now, Nate and Doumit will be Bay today. Why? Because look at who Huntington signed and wanted to sign over the winter to long deals...Snell, Sanchez and LaRoche. He is better than Littlefield( who wouldn't be), but his prime evaluations are curious.

Update 5:32:  The above quote is from W.G.

BTW Take:

I won't publish their name, until I get an OK from them...

The Doug M. quote says it all, the system needs to get deeper to get better and stay better.  It is easy for we fans to look at Bay and want to keep him, but that does not make it the right thing for the organization in general.  Huntington needs to plan for the future and turn over every bargaining chip he can to bring water to the desert that is the Pirates minor league system.

Until there is actual talent in all levels of the franchise, there will be no long term sustained success at the major league level.  While I hate comparing to Oakland or Minnesota, they have built their franchises the right way with plenty of depth.  There are few teams the Pirates can be compared to thanks to the ineptitude of the previous front office.  Tampa has taken the right approach by drafting the best available player in the drafts, they are reaping the rewards this season.

If Huntington were to build only through the draft and keep any players of worth to stay mildly competitive, it would take 4-6 more years of losing to rebuild this franchise.  A large part of that would be luck and health as much as it would be talent and homework just to improve in 6 years.  By the time the franchise was rebuilt, Huntington would likely be out of a job.

Live Blog:

I am going to start up a live blog to run through the deadline starting today through after the deadline.  Leave some comments, questions or links in the live blog and I will have them posted as I see them.  As always, I will have the first 10 posters have unmodified posts so they can post any links or comments for trades that may come down the wire before I see them.

BTW Q&A

This is the first of it's kind here at BTW. I received my first email with a question on the Pirates. The timing could not have been better since I put in a 60+ hour week at work last week and am just now getting to my email. Maybe this can be a new feature?

Bill asked on March 16th:

"Bucco announcers, yesterday, mentioned the plethora of lefties on the roster and the fact that other teams "are aware and looking at them."

Is that really the case and who might want who (Burnett, Grabow, Davidson, etc) and be willing to give up who?"

During the last weeks of Spring Training teams usually spend a lot of time scouting players who may be released. Teams pay attention to the waiver wire a bit more this time of year to fill any gaps that may have come due to injuries or to round out their minor league teams.

Major League trades are usually made because of necessity or forced by deadlines. Teams will make a trade to fill a need if they are close to a run or to fill a sudden need they can't fill from within. Generally, early in the season, teams will see what they have coming out of spring to determine what moves they need to make as the year wears on.

Don't get too eager for the trade and don't expect the Pirates to land top talent in return for their minor league arms. If a pitcher is traded for during the season, they usually are experienced players, not prospects. Look for the likes of Torres, Marte, Kolb and Grabow to garner the most interest as teams look to solidify their bullpen as the season takes its toll on bullpen arms and expose weaknesses in the pen.

Left handed relievers will land a bit more in return, as compared to their right handed counterparts, due to the lack of quality from the left hand side of the mound. Grabow could land a good positional prospect, think along the lines of Saurbeck to Boston. Marte could land a marginal to good prospect maybe a player blocked from advancing with his current team along the lines of Rincon to the Indians deal.

As for starters who will get some interest, easy selection here. All the above. Teams in need of left handed starters will ask about Duke first, then work their way down the rotation. Teams looking for a strong starter will inquire on Snell. Those teams looking to fill out the 4 or 5 spots in the rotation will ask about Chacon and Armas.

Remember Free Agents, Armas, signed in the off season can not be traded until they have reached a certain service time with the club that signs them. If a pitcher is traded early, look for Chacon to be the one moved.

If the Pirates are looking to add a player, they will have to offer up a minimum of 2 minor league starters to be able to improve the Major League squad by adding a starting position player who is only marginally better than current options. The question is where do they need to add that player?

Positions we know they are set at are LF, 1B, SS, 2B (depending on Freddy's position come the regular season) and C. The positions where they may look at solidifying might already be filled.

Nady may be the solution in RF, we need to see what he offers to this team. I think he will be a good solid RF for the next few seasons, maybe not spectacular but better than anyone we have had in recent years.

Jose Thirdbaseman, whether Castillo or Bautista, this is one position that could be solidified. Problem here is you put a road block up for Walker who just changed positions in hopes of getting to the majors quicker. I don't see a move made here.

Duffy, here is a question mark based on history and his preseason. Center is the position that scares me the most right now. McCutchen is oh so close to being ready, you don't want to block him before he can get his feet wet.

Basically two of the three positions that could be marked for improvement have prospects close to arriving. The third (RF) has a player who is good enough to start on many teams. To improve in RF, the cost would be too high for minimal improvement.

So what trades will be made. None. At least until closer to the Trade Deadline. The Pirates are not being driven by necessity nor a deadline, so don't look for an early season move. Pitching is a premium, and a fragile commodity. The best thing for this team is to hang on to as many arms as they can until someone offers the moon for mediocrity in order to fill a perceived hole in their team.

Don't look for many trades in the early part of the year throughout the league, at least nothing of major significance.

As for deadline deals, my crystal ball is broken so I will refrain from making rash calls until sometime in June or July to see where teams stand.

Bill, thanks for the question. Keep them coming.