McLouth Now A Brave

Like I said in my last post, if something major happens during my hiatus I will post on it.  What happened was one of the last things I expected to be posting on.  Nate McLouth has been traded to the Braves for three prospects.

The three prospects the Pirates have received in return are:

LHP Jeffrey Locke 21 A – Locke is a 6’2” lefty who was ranked number 7 by Baseball America in the Braves system.  Locke projects as a middle of the rotation pitcher with top of the rotation potential.  John Sickels had him rated as a B- player prior to 2009.

RHP Charlie Morton 25 AAA – Morton is a 6’4” righty.  The only info I can give, he was projected as the braves number 5 starter for 2012 by Baseball America.  He seems to project as a back of the rotation guy.  He has looked good in AAA this season going 7-2 with a 2.51 ERA.  He does have 16 games of MLB experience last year with the Braves.

OF Gorkys Hernandez 21 AA – Hernandez may be the most intriguing of the 3 players, in my eyes.  He was ranked number 4 in the Braves organization by Baseball America.  He is a right handed batter with speed and was ranked as a B- by Sickels.  He has yet to show the power he is expected to grow in to.  His defense is above average and could provide the Pirates a deadly outfield with McCutchen and Tabata also in the fold.

 

BTW Take:

My initial thought was, “WHAT?!” when I heard the news.  Then after I started digging, my impression did not change.

After spending some time looking at the deal, Huntington did what we have been waiting 16 years for a Pirates GM to do.  Sell high.  He has done that 3 times since last July with Nady and Bay being the other two deals.  In less than one year, Huntington has remolded the entire Pirates top 20 prospect list.  He is sticking to his plan and making the tough moves. 

Only time will tell if these were the right moves, but they haven’t looked bad so far.

Ironically the player who made this deal possible wasn’t even part of the trade.  Nyjer Morgan is the player who made this deal possible.  Morgan’s defense, as reported by Dejan in Wednesdays Notebook, is rated as a major defensive asset.  His number one rating in Ultimate Zone Rating among all MLB players helped make this deal possible.  The fact that he has been an offensive game changer has only helped his standing with the Pirates.  So far, I have been dead wrong on Morgan.

McCutchen is on his way to Pittsburgh for his MLB debut.  With McCutchen, Morgan and Moss (another highly ranked UZR) the Pirates could have one of the best defensive outfields around.  The Pirates as a team are ranked 3rd in MLB in UZR, McLouth was rated at a –1.00, and McCutchen should provide better performance than that. 

As with any defensive ratings, they are highly flawed.  There is no doubt in my mind McCutchen is a better defensive center fielder than McLouth.  My concern is if his bat is ready to make the jump.  Too often in Pirates history, highly touted prospects have failed to bring their bat to Pittsburgh with them. 

While this trade is not a popular trade, it is likely the right deal.  The Pirates get at least two players who will be in their top 10 prospect list and open a spot for their number one prospect to come up.  McLouth was traded while his value was still at a high point and the return was maybe more than valid for a one year starting outfielder.  This trade should also serve notice to players that they aren’t safe no matter the contract.  Ian Snell needs to take notice, Morton may be his replacement soon.

Just to be clear, I love Nate as a player, and his birthday should be a Holiday (same birthday as yours truly).  This deal, unlike Bay or Nady deals, will not show its true value for a few years to come.

 

BTW Slide Note:

I’ll likely be making some semi regular posts as I ramp back up to daily posts in the next couple weeks.

A Few Promising Things

I am not trying to drink the Kool-Aid. I am not saying this team will contend.

What I am saying, even with a four game losing streak, there is still a few things to believe as promising.

Even with Maholm having a bad outing, he never should have started his last inning, Maholm still fought and had his team in a position to win when he was finally removed.

The night before, the Pirates battled back to tie the game at five before the bullpen imploded.

Snell pitched very well, being out dueled in Wednesdays game.

Duke has continued to shine.

The pitching staff still lead the NL in ERA at the end of April, a five pretty good teams in Pittsburgh Pirates history did the same. So there is some hope with the pitching staff.

There are plenty of reasons to think this staff has at least 3 legitimate pitchers at the top of the rotation.

Ohlendorf and Karstens, they have even looked good at time.  They are both filling their roles in the rotation the way they should as forth and fifth starters.  The way they have pitched, many teams would take that production from the 4 and 5 spots.

The Pirates offense has not been as outstanding the last 22 innings, but slumps can be expected on any team. 

The best part of this 4 game skid...The Pirates are still at .500 on the season.  As long as the team can get this skid under control, and soon, there is still plenty of reasons to think this team might break the streak.  The key to breaking the streak, the pitching must maintain what they are doing. 

The starting rotation needs to keep from pushing, thinking they need to go 7 or 8 innings scoreless.  The only way that mind set is avoided...the offense needs to step it up and soon.

Injuries:

Jaramillo has stepped in nicely to fill the mitt behind the plate after Doumit went down with a wrist injury.  He has hit better than expected and has provided a little better defense behind the dish.  While Doumit's bat is missed, his glove has been more than adequately replaced.

Bixler has provided solid play at short with Jack Wilson on the DL.  His bat has yet to fully translate to MLB levels, but his defense has been solid. 

The loss of McLouth for 6 games did not help the offense.  Morgan has continued to play well, when not getting picked off when on base. 

The problem for the Pirates right now, they can't afford any more key injuries.  The depth still is not where Huntington would like it to be.  Luckily, the injuries have happened at positions where adequate players were waiting in the wings. 

If the Pirates take a hit in the starting rotation, that could doom the team to that record breaking season of 17. 

Brother In Arms:

I am formally retiring the Lil and Big LaWhiff titles.  Both brothers are playing well.  Andy has recovered from one of the ugliest starts of a season I have ever seen a player have.  His glove has been solid and his bat has translated enough to show he is ready to be the everyday third baseman until a certain someone arrives.

Adam is being 2nd half Adam in the first half.  If he can keep this up the whole season, he has a good shot at 35 HR's this season.  A nice change for a lineup that hasn't had much pop since the early 90's.

 

Game Thread:

The game thread may be up late again today.  Too many things to do and I am still tweaking the new Netbook.

Rumor

I am still working on details, but here is the latest rumor I have heard from multiple sources.  The Pirates are not satisfied with the starting rotation, as if that is a surprise.

What is surprising?

The Pirates may be close to acquiring a starting pitcher.  Details are fuzzy, but all the rumors surround Huntington and crew not wanting to break camp with Karstens as the fifth starter. 

According to sources, the Pirates have all but locked in on four starters: Maholm, Snell, Duke and Ohlendorf.  While the team is satisfied with what Ohlendorf has shown so far this spring, they are looking at him as a fifth starter solution. 

Huntington is pressing to land another starter before spring training is too far along to allow Russell and Kerrigan a chance to get a good read on the addition.

The possible acquisitions seem endless but the acquisition is not believed to be a free agent pitcher, unless the pitcher is waived or claimed in the coming days.

As I find out more, I will pass on any details.  Hopefully someone with closer sources on the team can verify the rumor.

 

Apologies:

I had a brain fart as I was writing this and spelled Joe Kerrigan's last name Kerrington.  Sorry Joe.  It is corrected now.

Random Spring Madness

Beating the rush to March Madness, I am going to run with some Random Madness...

Starting Rotation:

Right now, the starting rotation looks to have 4 members in Maholm, Snell, Ohlendorf and Duke.  The 5th starter is a pretty ugly battle, but one that Dan McCutchen may be winning.  He has been far from dominant, but he has limited the hits and performed at an adequate rate for a 5th starter.  While his 5.40 ERA is nothing to be proud of, he is showing more than Karstens or Gorzelanny.  Barthmaier has all but sealed a trip to Indianapolis.

The telltale of the whole 5th starter battle should clear up in the coming weeks, whoever gets the bulk of the innings among McCutchen, Gorzelanny and Karstens in the coming weeks will be the winner of the battle. 

Regardless of the winner, when Dumatrait is deemed healthy and his arm strength is back, look for him to step into the rotation immediately unless one of the three start to show something near adequate value.  I'd expect at least one game in the next two weeks to showcase all three pitching.

Then there is always Pedro, Martinez not Alvarez.

Houston, We Have A Problem:

Houston is 1-11 in spring ball.  The question here is simple.  How bad will they be in 2009?  From all reports across the land, they are looking to shed salary and have a farm system that would make Dave Littlefield proud.

If they simply do salary dumps, they could be headed towards breaking the Pirate soon to be record for losing seasons.  There is not much help on the way either.  If they can rebuild the farm with trades of their current talent, the Pirates record will be safe.  I am interested in seeing if they pull a Aramis Ramirez style trade for Lee, or if they hold out for talent in return.

It should make for an interesting start to the season if the Astros dump players.

BTW March Madness:

The time is coming for March Madness.  As in past years, I will be running a March Madness Pool.  If there is a prize, it is yet to be determined, I will have the info up when the link is posted.  I will have the link up in a couple days, or sooner if I find time tonight.  Plan on joining other BTW readers, The Buccos Forum regulars and random bloggers from around the interweb in an intense battle for March Madness Supremacy!!!

 

Here is the Link:

http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/register/joinprivategroup_assign_team?GID=59773&P=pirates

 

IF it requests a password: pirates

 

More info coming.

A Wild Thought Looking to 2012

All the anticipation of a Mark Teixeira signing has me thinking.

While listening to an interview on MLB Live (XM 175) during the winter meetings, a key quote came from one of the GM's who were being interviewed.  He made a comment that you aren't building a team for just this coming year, but also building with an eye five years down the road. 

This had my mind wandering with thoughts of what the Pirates moves might mean five years down the road.  None of the recent signings fall under that scenario.  However the rumored discussions going on with McLouth, Doumit and Maholm would at least be looking three or four years in the future.

That lineup in 2012 could have a nucleus of McLouth, McCutchen, Tabata, Alvarez and Doumit.  A few other names could be Sanchez, Andy LaRoche and Walker.  All in all, that seems like a pretty nice lineup to manage.

The rotation in 2012 could consist of Maholm, Gorzelanny, Snell and Bryan Morris and about 10 others to chose from for the remaining spot.

Now the question is, should the Pirates be looking at adding to that lineup now?

Adam LaRoche likely will not be a Pirate beyond 2009. 

In 2012 Alvarez will be manning one of the corner infield positions.  Walker or Andy LaRoche might be manning the other.

Why not make a move to have the veteran centerpiece to the lineup added now?

Teixeira is a rare talent.  Offering a contract to him with an eye to the future could make a nice lineup be formidable.  Obviously there would have to be some sort of out for Teixeira in the event season 20 of losing is looming.  The Pirates would probably like an out too.

Offer Teixeira a $200M 10 year contract with opt outs after year 3 (2012), year 5 (2014) and year 8 (2017).  The Pirates also should receive an opt out after year 5 also.

This would destroy payroll, and could never happen with the somewhere in the range of $50M payroll.  Or could it?

Adam LaRoche will be getting somewhere in the $7-8M range after arbitration.  If that contract was traded, the Pirates still have $12M to pick up.  Ironically there have been many references to the Pirates have $12-15M to spend if the fit is right.

A trade of Jack Wilson would free up some additional room under the estimated payroll.

It seems most of the rotation is already in place.  Why not add the key piece if he would be interested in playing on the east coast, close to where he calls home.  If Teixeira is honestly considering Baltimore or Washington, why not Pittsburgh?  He could be mentioned with Stargell, Clemente, Maz and many other in Pirate lore and be a local hero in a town that follows baseball until Steeler camp opens.  That could change with a player like Teixera on the roster.

A signing like this would sell some tickets in a tough economic time for the Pirates.  Teixeira would be a named face of the team for years to come. 

If LaRoche is not moved?

Teixeira can play third.

Why would Teixeira want to play in Pittsburgh besides being a Pittsburgh hero? 

Take another look at the talent that will be around him in the next couple years.  If $20M isn't enough, the talent that will be coming in the next couple of years could make the decision easier.  He won't be coming into a rebuilding project.  He will be reaping the benefits of coming in at the end of a 16 year rebuilding project.

If Baltimore and Washington are actually part of the discussion, the Pirates have a better future looming based on prospects than Washington.  Baltimore has Weiters and a few other nice prospects similar to the situation the Pirates are in.  My personal biased opinion is the Pirates have better closer than Baltimore.

Another reason, in three years he has an opt out that would likely be a much better market for free agents. 

Why would the Pirates make such a 10 year gamble?

In order for Huntington to build the franchise through trades, there needs to be pieces to trade.  The Pirates could always trade him for a bounty of young talent before year three and further rebuild their minor league system.  Teixeira could be that huge piece, even if he is not in the 2012 lineup.  If he is still here in 2012 and beyond, the Pirates have their new star to hang their hat on.  Not just a nice player hyped by the team as an elite player.

This scenario will never happen, but it is fun to dream isn't it?

Game 122, 16 to 16, No Ollie, Deadline Day

Vitals:

NEW YORK METS (65-56)	RHP MIKE PELFREY (10-8, 4.11 ERA)
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (55-66)	RHP JASON DAVIS (1-1, 1.38 ERA)
Game Time	7:05 EDT
XM	XM 183
TV	FSN

16 to 16:

Let us start the countdown...16 more losses to 16 straight years of losing.  A missed fact about the wonderful Phillies that set the record, they had 1 winning season in a 30 year period. (Hopefully I heard that stat right, I'll investigate and get the answer)

No Ollie:

In the upcoming four game series with the Mets, the will not face Oliver Perez.  Here are the expected starters:

Friday RHP MIKE PELFREY (10-8, 4.11 ERA) vs. RHP JASON DAVIS (1-1, 1.38 ERA)

Saturday RHP Pedro Martinez (3-3, 5.37 ERA) vs. LHP Zach Duke (4-10, 5.10 ERA) FSNP

Sunday LHP Johan Santana (10-7, 2.89 ERA) vs. RHP Jeff Karstens (2-1, 1.23 ERA) FSNP (HD)

Monday John Maine (10-7, 3.97 ERA) vs. LHP Paul Maholm (8-7, 3.69 ERA) NO TV

What can you expect from the Pirates in this series?  

Look for them to take a ton of pitches from the starters in an attempt to get into the woeful Mets bullpen.  If you remember the last series against the Mets, the Pirates ran up a high pitch count on Santana to chase him from the game and feast on the pen.

The Pirates are 11-9 all time in PNC against the Mets. 

The Pirates are 2-1 against the Mets this season.

Look for a series win, and possibly a sweep.  I won't say who sweeps or gets the series win...

Deadline Day:

Well, as the day rolls on, I will post anything I hear on draft deadline signings as I hear them. 

Word is, from the front desk, Scheppers is still in Pittsburgh.

Expect an Alvarez announcement around 11:59:59 PM.

There are 3 other mystery signings that could happen.  One will not be Drew Gagnon.

Burnett:

Sean Burnett has a nice string going.  He has allowed only 3 runs in 10.1 IP since the All-Star break.  He has a 2.16 ERA since June 19th covering 25 innings (6 earned runs).

 

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Putrid Pitching

After another shotty outing, Hererra was sent back to Altoona. I'd look for Davis to take the spot in the rotation. Another option would be calling up Gorzelanny, the issue there is management saying they would not rush him back.
Gorzelanny had a very nice outing for Indianapolis last night, however I am pretty sure Huntington wants to see a few more good outings first.
In other pitching news. Snell has an option left, if his next start is as bad as his last, he may get to trade places with Gorzelanny when Gorzelanny does get his callup.

Trade, Sanchez, LaRoche, Pitching and Game 106

Vitals:

COLORADO ROCKIES (48-58)	RHP Valerio De Los Santos (0-0, 0.00 ERA) 2008 Debut
PITTSBURGH PIRATES (48-57)	RHP IAN SNELL (3-8, 6.10 ERA)
Game Time	7:05 EDT
XM	XM 185
TV	FSN

Trade Comment:

While I have said I like the trade of Marte and Nady and what the return is, I have not gone into why I liked the trade.  Finally I will attempt to put it into words.

What was the one thing that has plagued the Pirates this season?  Anyone would answer that as poor pitching.  More directly, the lack of options in the minors.  This trade brought in two pitchers with some major league experience.  The third pitcher, McCutchen, is one that has all the pitches to be successful and has climbed through the minors in 3 seasons.  McCutchen was drafted at age 23.  Don't take too much out of his first start for the Indians, he drove overnight to get to the game only to find out he would be starting that night.

Add in the fact an outfielder, Tabata, with nearly unlimited potential was in the deal.  The return helps the team now and in the future.

What did we give up in the deal?  An outfielder in  Nady that is in the midst of a career season unlikely to be replicated.  I like Nady, but in all honesty he is a .280 hitter with 15-20 HR power who could play 140 games for the team (knowing his luck with injuries).  He is a useful player on a contending team but he is not a star.  The Pirates will likely see similar numbers from Pearce with better power numbers and hopefully better health. 

Marte has been tabbed as a lefty specialist, although he has performed well against righties this year.  He is a quality reliever, but the Pirates need more quality arms in the system in general, something they did receive in this trade.

In all likelihood this trade has actually helped the team move forward this year and in the future by getting some young talent to Pittsburgh in Pearce and has added depth to a starting rotation that had no options in the Minors to speak of.

What is not to like?  The Yankees acquired a platoon player (for the Yankees) in Nady and a lefty specialist (for the Yankees) in Marte for one of their top position prospects and 3 useful arms.

Overall, I would say the deal is a good one for the Pirates in the long term and helps the Yankees this year and maybe next.

Sanchez and LaRoche Injured:

Doug Mientkiwicz and Chris Gomez will be starting at 1B and 2B tonight against Colorado after both Sanchez and LaRoche injured their backs in the finale against the Padres Sunday.

Maholm:

Paul Maholm matched up well against one of the better pitchers in the National League.  Maholm may not be an ace, but for now he is pitching like one.  Jeff Andrews deserves a lot of credit for his turn around this year, considering the flack he is taking for the performance of the other pitchers.  The flack he is receiving, I feel is unjust. 

Gorzy has hit a sophmore slump.  Both he and Snell were overused last season by Tracy.  This could have been a fun year for Pirates fans, if Tracy and crew knew how to handle a young staff last season.

Davis and Karstens:

Jason Davis has been added to the 25 man roster while JVB has been demoted to Indianapolis and has been placed in their Bullpen.

Jeff Karstens will be taking JVB's spot in the rotation and will start either Friday or Sunday in Chicago.

Links:

Dejan has an article worth reading on the remaining Pirates top 10 Draft picks.  It looks like well over 30 players from this draft could be signed by the August 15th deadline.

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Fruit Baskets, Game 101, D(eal) Day

Snelled Again:
Ian Snell should send Dave Littlefield a nice fruit basket or something. The only thing between Snell and Indy is the fantastic farm system Littlefield assembled. If there was any pitching help in the minors at all, Snell would still be sharing a rotation with Gorzelanny.

Game 101:
What a catch by Nate McLouth in center. With his back to the infield, he caught a tailing fly ball over his shoulder. Too bad ESPN didn't watch the game for a highlight.

Count Down To D(eal) Day:
There are only 7 days until the non-waiver trade deadline. After the first deal, don't be surprised to see Davis added to the 40 man roster. He has been the only reliable pitcher in Indianapolis.
I doubt Marte gets dealt unless two proven prospects are the return. If Huntington can't land something better than the equivalent talent of two late first round picks, the deal would make no sense. That is why the asking price is so high.
I am interested in seeing what Huntington does with Marte more than any other deal.

Snelled, Logged and Flogged, and Game 97

Vitals:

PITTSBURGH PIRATES (44-52)	RHP YOSLAN HERRERA (0-0, 12.46 ERA)
COLORADO ROCKIES (41-57)	LHP JORGE DE LA ROSA (3-5, 7.26 ERA)
Game Time	8:05 EDT
XM	XM 185
TV	FSN

Herrera:

I was interested in seeing what Herrera would do last start. Let's call that one none too good. Tonight is his second MLB start, hopefully he shows more than he did last time. If he doesn't, this will be a high scoring game.

Tonight is Herrera's best chance to make a case for staying in Pittsburgh.

Snell-ed:

Ian was not too good, not too bad. Unfortunately, when he got in trouble he threw somewhere in the range of 10 straight fastballs (allegedly 96mph) before a breaking pitch or off speed pitch was thrown. "Just throw fastballs," Snell said. "Make them get themselves out."

This has been the MO for this staff this year, relying too much on the fastball and not varying speed when they do get in that rut. Once a major league hitter gets timing down on the fastball, look out in the cheap seats. Pitchers like JVB rely on a 93 mph heater that is flat and no one can understand why he gets shelled.

Lincoln Logged, Moskos Flogged:

Brad Lincoln made his first start at Lynchburg with a line of 4 IP, 5 R, 5 ER, 7 H. Two of the hits allowed were long balls.

During the game the Nationals announcers were discussing the Pirates drafting of Moskos during the game. Both announcers were slamming the Pirates for that pick saying he was a reach at best, especially at the number 5 pick.

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