40 Man – Around The Corners

First
The options at 1st base are somewhat limited.  Steve Pearce had a chance last season to show he was capable of being an everyday MLB 1B, unfortunately his bat has yet to show above AAA.  His career BA is .237 in 378 PA’s with 8 HR’s. 

The next option is Jeff Clement, a converting catcher.  He has some experience, 28 games, playing 1B in the minors.  Hardly enough to consider him a seasoned player.  At the MLB level, he is a career .237 hitter with a limited sample size of 243 AB’s with 7 HR’s.

Comparing Pearce and Clement is like comparing two peas from the same pod.  Both have limited MLB at bats batting .237.  The HR numbers are very similar as well.  The only real difference?  Pearce has much more experience through the minors as a 1B.

Which leads me to who I am picking to start the season at 1B, not a shocker at all.  Garrett Jones and his .276 BA with 23 career home runs.  I want to emphasize start the season.

40 Man – For Starters

The first 4 are pretty much a given, the order is what is not a given.  The first 4 will be Maholm, Duke, Ohlendorf and Morton.  I’ll dig into what the order will be sometime in the next week.

For this post I am looking at who I see as the 5th starter.  The front runners are Hart and McCutchen.  Veal has an outside shot at the spot, but he really needs to be stretched out a bit in the minors as a starter after spending 2009 coming out of the pen as a rule 5 pickup.  Brad Lincoln also has a shot, but the Pirates seem dead set to keep him in AAA for at least the start of the season.  Think arbitration clock and you will know why.

Let me preface my prediction by saying one thing, don’t expect the loser to spend time in Indy. 

McCutchen is too much like Duke and Maholm by being a finesse pitcher, although from the other side of the rubber.  By being too much like Duke and Maholm, this actually lends more to a rotation spot than spending time in the bullpen.  Would you want the same type of  pitcher relieving a guy who just got pulled after 3 innings?

I am leaning towards McCutchen, more because he had 179 IP’s last year between AAA and Pittsburgh, that would allow him to go around 210 innings before the Pirates would start pulling back on the reins.  In other words, McCutchen could go the entire season as a starter and not reach an inning limit.

Hart had approximately 133 IP’s last season between minors and majors.  The Pirates would have to shut him down or limit him when he got around the 165 IP mark.

Hart has the pitches to really fit in the pen.  In the last 2 seasons, he has spent more time coming out of the pen than starting.  Over the two years, Hart has appeared in 89 games between the minors and majors.  Of those 89 only 32 were starts.  The Pirates do look at him as a starter, but he will either need to be stretched out this year, possibly in Indy, or be tabbed as a long reliever.  My bet is as a reliever and emergency starter.

My call for the 5th starter:  Daniel McCutchen

 

Walking:

Once again, for the 4th year,  I am walking in the MDA Stride and Ride event and  I am looking for sponsors.  If you can find it in you heart to donate a little, it does not have to be much as every dollar helps, it would be greatly appreciated.  Please sponsor me in this worthwhile cause.

You can donate online at my MDA page that can be found here:

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Thanks for reading, and thanks for your support.

An Optimistic View Of The 2009 Pittsburgh Pirates

The following is my attempt to be blindly optimistic on the Pittsburgh Pirates 2009 season.  To see what I really think will happen, stay tuned or check my 2009 pre-preview. 

The following is the likely Pittsburgh Pirates 2009 25 man roster to start the season against the Cardinals.

Lineup:

LF Nyjer Morgan
2B Freddy Sanchez
CF Nate McLouth
C Ryan Doumit
1B Adam LaRoche
RF Brandon Moss*
3B Andy LaRoche*
SS Jack Wilson

Bench:

C  Jason Jaramillo
IF Ramon Vazquez
MIF Luis Cruz or Brian Bixler
CIF/COF Eric Hinske
OF Jeff Salazar

Starters:

SP Paul Maholm
SP Ian Snell
SP Tom Gorzelanny
SP Zach Duke
SP Jeff Karstens
SP Ross Ohlendorf

Bullpen:

RP Craig Hansen*
RP Sean Burnett*
RP Donnie Veal**
SU Tyler Yates*
SU John Grabow
CL Matt Capps

Start Season On DL:

Phil Dumatrait*

* - Out of options in 2009.
** - Rule 5 selection.

The following players will likely see some time with Pittsburgh this season due to injury or any other personnel happenings.

On The Horizon:

OF Craig Monroe
OF Andrew McCutchen
OF Jose Tabata
IF Steve Pearce
IF Luis Cruz or Brian Bixler
SP Daniel McCutchen
RP Craig Hansen
RP Evan Meek
RP Romulo Sanchez
RP Denny Bautista
RP Chris Bootcheck
RP Jason Davis

 

Pitching:
You may notice I have 6 starting pitchers listed.  Either Duke or Ohlendorf could start the season in the bullpen or in AAA Indianapolis.  The Pirates will rotate many arms in and out of the bullpen to try and keep it fresh, unfortunately the only arms that can be sent to Indy are starters.  Burnett will likely fill the long reliever position through most of the year.  Whoever lands in the long relief spot out of camp will be the one who likely ends up in AAA when Dumatrait comes off the DL.  Whoever pitches as the number 5 starter to start the year will drop into long relief and will be the next pitcher sent to AAA when the bullpen needs an arm.  At that time Burnett will land in the long relief position.

BTW Optimistic Take:
The starting rotation will thrive under the tutelage of Kerrigan.  Each pitcher will rebound to near their career peak numbers or close to those numbers.  Snell and Gorzelanny will both rebound to pre-2008 numbers.

The bullpen is loaded with power arms to set up Capps.  Capps will continue to prove he is among the leagues best closers and will have many more opportunities to close out games in 2009.

Overall, the team ERA will improve by over 1 run a game by detailed pre-start preparation, challenging hitters and pitching inside.

 

Position:
The season will revolve around the middle of this young lineup.  A core of Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche and Ryan Doumit will anchor the lineup from the 3,4 and 5 positions.  Late season additions Brandon Moss and Andy LaRoche will also be key factors in the performance of the team.  A healthy Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson will bookend the middle part of the lineup with speedy Nyger Morgan starting the season as the leadoff hitter.

There will be some depth and versatility on the bench led by powerful veteran Eric Hinske with additional options on the horizon in the minors.

The arrival of top prospect Andrew McCutchen is planned for sometime this season.

BTW Optimistic Take:
Adam LaRoche will be playing for a contract, if there was ever a season the elder LaRoche hits in April and May, 2009 is it.  A full season of the left handed slugger will go a long way to making this team better than last season offensively.

 
Brandon Moss has all the tools necessary to put up power numbers similar to Jason Bay. 

Andy LaRoche is highly touted, and this is the season he should break out and show why he has been a top prospect for many years. 

With new contracts in hand, both Nate McLouth and Ryan Doumit will show their contracts were not in vane. 

A healthy Freddy Sanchez should return to his batting champion status, setting the table for the middle of a potentially prominent middle of the order.

 
Nyger Morgan will start the season strong, as he ended 2008, using his good grasp of the strike zone to add to his repertoire of getting on base.  Morgan will likely be replaced by top prospect Andrew McCutchen before the trade deadline.  Morgan should be able to raise his trade value to the point the Pirates may be able to move him for solid prospects, as teams are always on the lookout for leadoff hitters.

 
As the season progresses with the multi-tooled McCutchen in place, the Pirates offense will further blossom.

 

Conclusion:
The Pirates have built a deeper organization through the draft and with the trades of 2008.  There is finally some depth in what was perceived as a barren farm system.  The young players are starting to take their places on the team, 2009 should be a preview of what the future holds for Pirates fans.

BTW Optimistic Conclusion:
The Pirates have most of the tools in place to become the surprise team of 2009.  Recent seasons in baseball have shown the ability for teams thought to be hapless to come out of nowhere and contend for world championships.  This season it is the Pirates turn.

 

My God!  That was the hardest thing I have ever done.  Maybe I should go into writing fiction for a living.  Nah, this post wasn't that believable was it?

Donate:

I will be walking in the MDA Stride and Ride locally. Please sponsor me in my Stride and Ride Walk for MDA at https://www.joinmda.org/srcoralvilleia09/dharr18. Every dollar is appreciated.

2009 Pre-Preview And A Look Back At 2008

Looking Back at 2008:

Being a Pittsburgh Pirates fan is like enjoying Sports Cream in your jock.  No matter how you look at it, pain is in the past as well as the future.  Looking back is painful for any Pirate fan over the last 16 years.  Looking forward doesn't bring much relief either.

I prefer not to do a year end recap, overall just way too painful.  The highlights of 2008 were few and far between.  Nate McLouth accounted for the best moments on the diamond making the All-Star team and actually deserving it.  He also won a Gold Glove for his average defense and above average bat.

The other big happening of 2008 was the acquisition of 13 of the Pirates top 20 prospects including the arrival of two of the top three prospects Pedro Alvarez and Jose Tabata.  While this seems to be a good thing, it actually shows how poor the franchise was prior to Huntington and Coonley arriving.  Having predecessors like Littlefield and Bonnifay, Huntington would have to be a real screw-up not to be an improvement.

The lone other memorable happening, Pirates fan got to know their owners.  The Nutting family finally came out of the closet with the face of the family being Bob Nutting.

That is as far as I will go for a look back.  Looking at games or anything else just puts a damper on enjoying, using that term loosely, Pirates baseball.

 

2009 Pre-Preview:

Look back at the end of 2008, no matter how painful it is, and you will see what will likely be the Pirates starting lineup.  Yes, not much has changed so far.

Lineup:

LF Nyjer Morgan
2B Freddy Sanchez
CF Nate McLouth
C Ryan Doumit
1B Adam LaRoche
RF Brandon Moss
3B Andy LaRoche
SS Jack Wilson

Starters:

SP Paul Maholm
SP Ian Snell
SP Tom Gorzelanny
SP Zach Duke
SP Jeff Karstens
SP Ross Ohlendorf

Bullpen:

SU Tyler Yates
SU John Grabow
CL Matt Capps

 

What to watch for:

Before Spring Training:

There are a few free agents the Pirates have interest in.  Rocco Baldelli and Doug Mientkiewicz are two position players the Pirates are known to be in contact with the Pirates.  Both can play the outfield and Mientkiewicz can play more of a super sub role with the ability to additionally play third, first and second.

Neither Nyger Morgan nor Brandon Moss should be starting outfielders, both should be considered forth outfielders at best.  Baldelli, if healthy, could step into either corner outfield position and immediately improve the lineup. 

Mientkiewicz would be coming off the bench as well as Steve Pearce as a backup first baseman and backup right fielder.

Who will be brought in from a very inactive free agent market?  Will Huntington find any steals?

 

During Spring Training:

The bullpen and rotation will be sorted out.  There are many un-owned bullpen spots.  There are too many arms that will be thrown against the wall to accurately guess who will man the pen.  The same can be said for the 4th and 5th starter in the rotation.  I still look at Duke as having as close to a lock on the 4th starter spot as anyone can claim.  A lot will be determined in spring.

Andy LaRoche and Neil Walker will battle it out for third.  LaRoche will likely start the season as the everyday third baseman.  If he struggles, Walker will be waiting in the wings.

How will the bench be filled out?  Who will make the team that was unexpected going into spring?

 

During the Season:

It is widely anticipated Andrew McCutchen will make his MLB debut.  Look for him to slide into the left field position sometime around May.  Who moves to right, if Baldelli is not acquired?  It would not shock me if Tabata makes an appearance during the season as well.  He has a spot on the 40 man roster and will be likely start the season in Indianapolis.

Another interesting thing will be how the rotation fairs.  Can Snell and Gorzelanny rebound from poor seasons?  Can Maholm continue to build on an impressive 2008?  Will Zach Duke ever live up to the hype he initially raised in his rookie year?  If all four pitch as well as they had in past seasons, the rotation could be a strong point on the team.

Can the bullpen be pieced together enough to get to Grabow and Capps?

Can Andy LaRoche finally make the jump to the Majors?  He has proven all he can prove in AAA, now is the time to see if he is a bust or will he finally live up to the scouts opinion of him.  If he becomes what he has been expected to be, what happens with Neil Walker?

Will Adam LaRoche finally start hitting before June?

Where will Pedro Alvarez play in the minors?  Will he be groomed as a third baseman or will he jump across the diamond to first as the heir apparent to Adam LaRoche?  How quickly will he rise through the system?

Will the 2008 draft class start living up to the hype of being one of the better drafts in the majors?  What does the 2009 draft hold in store for the Pirates?

Who will be traded at the deadline?  Will the Pirates farm system continue to improve?  Can the Pirates develop another player into their upper echelon of prospects?

Can Kerrigan coerce some strikes out of a group of hard throwing wild armed bullpen pitchers?  Can he turn around the poor seasons of Duke, Snell and Gorzelanny?

 

Conclusion:

Don't expect great things in 2009 from the MLB team, 68-72 wins I am predicting as the lineup stands right now.  There are too many questions and not enough answers.  2009 will be a stepping stone to 2010.  This coming season will likely be a 17th consecutive losing season, but it will be a season where hopefully some of those questions will be answered.  If they go unanswered, we as fans will see an 18th losing season before all is said and done.

 

I will run another season preview as we get closer to Opening Day 2009.

 

Please discuss this post at The Buccos Forum.  Here is a link to the thread:

http://www.thebuccosforum.com/cgi-bin/yabb2/YaBB.pl?num=1230867953

2008 Season Projection

A little late with this, but here are my predictions for 2008.

	American League
East	Central	West
Boston	Cleveland	Los Angeles
Toronto	Minnesota	Oakland
Tampa	Kansas City	Seattle
New York	Detroit	Texas
Baltimore	Chicago
Breakdown: Boston should walk away with the division.  This team has too much depth, if that is possible.   Toronto has too many injury risks in their rotation. Tamp will surprise, I can see them landing anywhere between 2nd and 4th in the division. New York will end up somewhere between 2nd and 4th.  Their Achilles Heel will be their rotation.  Their is no middle ground, old or inexperienced. Baltimore, well...enough said.  That is bad coming from a Pirates fan.  Their team highlight will be what they get for Roberts.	Breakdown: Cleveland Rocks!  They have possibly the best 1-2 punch in their rotation and a lineup that can score some runs, when healthy. Minnesota just finds a way to stay in the mix no matter how much they lose (talent wise) in the offseason.  Kansas City is another surprise pick.  They have been slowly improving, this season they will see the payoff. Detroit's bullpen is a disaster.  They will score a ton of runs, but give up more.  I still wonder why they traded pitching for offense when they were one of the top offenses already. Chicago should be prepared for may outbursts from Ozzie this year.  Look for a major shakeup at the top if/when the wheels fall off.	Breakdown: The Angels will win the division, more because of attrition than dominance. Oakland has a young team that will stumble, but will find a way to be around .500. Too much Hype has been attributed to Seattle.  There is still too much missing for this team to make a run at LA.  Their rotation will need to be flawless for this team to compete with the Halo's. Group Texas in with Baltimore.  Not much on the horizon outside of watching for the blockbuster trade.

Wild Card: Toronto

ALDS: Cleveland over Toronto, Boston over Los Angeles

MVP: Manny Ramirez

Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia

 

	National League
East	Central	West
Philadelphia	Milwaukee	Arizona
New York	Chicago	San Diego
Washington	Cincinnati	Los Angeles
Atlanta	Pittsburgh	Colorado
Florida	St. Louis	San Francisco
	Houston
Philadelphia is the defending champ.  Pitching could hurt them but they have enough that the offense will overcome. New York got Santana, but there isn't much beyond an aging Pedro in the rotation.  Perez will run hot and cold like usual.  Health is going to be a concern for this team.  Oh, they traded nearly the entire farm to get Santana, so don't look to the minors for relief. Washington will ride the high of finally having a home stadium.  They are getting to the point they could start making noise in the division.  Pitching will determine their fate. Atlanta could finish anywhere in the division.  Bringing back Glavine shows they are trying to relive past glory.  Between Hampton's frailty and the age of Glavine and Smoltz, this rotation could implode quickly. Florida, well you get what you pay for.  But there is a lot of talent on the way, possibly by the time the new stadium is built they will make another run to the Series.	Ugly division, 85 games will likely win the division with all participants able to win 85 if the cards fall right. Milwaukee is one of two teams I see with the best likelihood of winning 85.  Their offense is good, can the pitching stay healthy.  If all things go right for this team, they will run away with the division. Chicago is the other team with the best likelihood of 85 wins.  The Cubs have issues in the closer role.  Any time it is closer by committee, it is not a good thing.  I can't get excited over their rotation either.  Lieber and Lilly scare me. Cincinnati plays in a little league park for their home game.  Much like the Tigers, they will score runs, mostly from the long ball.  Pitching will still be an issue.  Their 4 and 5 starters leave much to be desired.  Fogg will get pummeled in Great American, a fly ball pitcher goes there to die. Pittsburgh, this is the homer in me coming out.  They could break the drought, they could lose 100.  The big deal this year is who gets traded and what shape will the high minors be in at the end of the season. St. Louis will do it with mirrors this year if they have a good year.  After Pujols, they are counting on getting offense from inexperienced players and .250 career hitters.  Their rotation will go under many overhauls this year. Houston has some hope if Wandy Rodriguez learns to pitch away from home and Oswalt pitches every other day.  They could have the worst team ERA by the end of the season.  Offense will be their deciding factor.  Can Lee, Berkman and Tejada make up for no depth and very little pitching?	Arizona on paper sticks out as the best team in the NL.  Their rotation is solid.  They will score more runs this year than their opposition. San Diego may set a new record for lowest team ERA.  If the offense can produce, or they can add some pieces, this is a team to recon with. Los Angeles is Joe Torres' team.  When he has managed outside of the Yankees, he has been a horrible manager.  I wonder if he remembers how to manage in the NL?  Talent wise, this team should compete. Colorado had a Cinderella run last year, don't expect the same this year.  their are only so many former Pirates starting pitchers they can go through and still survive in the West. San Fran is in a rebuilding phase.  They have some excellent young pitching, but when J.J. Davis is one of your top young position players.  ACK!

Wild Card: San Diego

ALDS: San Diego over Philly,  Arizona over Milwaukee

MVP: Chase Utley

Cy Young: Jake Peavy

 

World Series:

Cleveland over San Diego

Visit the BTW Forum to make your predictions.  Maybe I can dig up a prize for who is right.

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2008 Pirates Season Preview

Still a draft, I will finish it sometime in the next day or so...

The Manager:
John Russell - He is a first year manager.  He had done time in Pittsburgh from 2003-2005 as a catching instructor and third base coach.

Additions and Subtractions:
While no major additions were made during the offseason, some interesting moves were made.  Doug Mientkiewicz was brought is on a minor league contract to potentially add some depth to the Pirates bench.  A host of starters and former starters were brought in to compete initially for a bullpen spot, but more recently there looks to be a competition for a spot in the rotation.

The key to the additions, the starting lineup from 2007 did not get changed.  Possibly some chemistry will help the team in 2008?

Arrivals:  
RHP Elmer Dessens
LHP Phil Dumatrait
INF Chris Gomez
RHP Byung-Hyun Kim
RHP Evan Meek
1B Doug Mientkiewicz
RHP Ty Taubenheim
OF Kevin Thompson
INF Josh Wilson
RHP Jaret Wright

The departures had some interesting names in it.  Castillo, Chacon and Torres were key Bucco's sent packing.  Castillo never reached his potential, new management decided to cut ties.  Add in the loss of Phelps, and the Pirates bench took a hit this past offseason.

The bullpen took on multiple shots with the departures of Chacon, Torres and to a lesser extent Armas.

Departures:  
RHP Tony Armas
INF Jose Castillo
RHP Shawn Chacon
INF Cesar Izturis
INF Matt Kata
1B Josh Phelps
RHP Salomon Torres
LHP Shane Youman

 
Pitching: 
The rotation, while likely already set, may have some tweaks still performed.  Morris could end up being the odd man out  in the end.  The season will start with these five pitchers, but I expect any struggles will lend to quick hooks for the three thru five starters with so many arms waiting for a shot in the minors.  The starting rotation will be the key to this teams success or failure.  If they all perform well, then the onus will be on the bats.

1. RHP Ian Snell
2. LHP Tom Gorzelanny
3. LHP Paul Maholm
4. RHP Matt Morris
5. LHP Zach Duke

In the Wings for the Rotation:
Jaret Wright, Elmer Dessens, Phil Dumatrait, Yoslan Herrera, Kuwata, Brad Lincoln, Bullington, Van Benschoten

Lineup:
The Lineup should be fairly consistent this season. Bay and LaRoche will swap slots occasionally and the catching position will be a platoon.  Center could be interesting as well, Morgan will get some time out there and a speed lineup (Morgan and McLouth in the same lineup) may be used from time to time to jumpstart a sagging offense. 

McLouth CF
Wilson SS
Sanchez 2B
LaRoche 1B
Bay LF
Nady RF
Paulino/Doumit C
Bautista 3B

Bullpen:
The Pirates will take 12 pitchers north, there is plenty of bullpen help throughout the minors thanks to Littlefields addiction to middle relievers.

Bullpen: 
RHP Matt Capps (closer)
LHP Damaso Marte
LHP John Grabow
LHP Sean Burnett
RHP Byung-Hyun Kim
RHP Franquelis Osoria
RHP Evan Meek

Others in Bullpen Future:
Jonah Bayliss, Hector Carrasco, Casey Fossum, Kuwata, Jaret Wright, Elmer Dessens, Phil Dumatrait, Ty Taubenheim

Bench: 

This could be a very week spot on the team, or a surprising strength. 

C/OF Ryan Doumit
1B/OF Doug Mientkiewicz
INF Chris Gomez
INF Luis Rivas
OF Nyger Morgan

Other Bench Possibles:
OF Kevin Thompson
INF Josh Wilson

Prospects to Watch:
OF Steve Pearce
INF Neil Walker
OF Andrew McCutchen
INF Brian Bixler

 

Five Wild Cards:

1. Can the offense provide enough runs?
2. Will the bullpen gel, or struggle with constant shuffling?
3. Can Andrews, the new pitching coach, get Duke and Maholm back to a couple years ago?  Andrews was the pitching coach who worked with them in their minor league careers.
4. How soon until trades start happening opening the doors for Pearce, McCutchen, Walker and Bixler to step in?
5. Who wins the majority of time behind the plate?  This could seriously affect the offense and the pitching.

Five Keys To The Season:

1. The rotation must be strong and go deep into games.  The bullpen is a collection of duct tape and nailing wire.
2. Bay needs to get back to All-Star caliber.
3. LaRoche needs to play the season start to finish.  No .200 average over the first 3 months is allowed.
4. Capps needs to establish himself as a top notch dominant closer.
5. A setup man needs to step up and take the role.

 

Fantasy Watch: 
Guys worth a shot: 

Jason Bay, OF:
Adam LaRoche, 1B:
Freddy Sanchez, 2B/3B: 
Nate McLouth, OF:

Jack Wilson, SS:

Matt Capps, CL:
Tom Gorzelanny, SP:
Ian Snell, SP:
Evan Meek, RP:

Prediction:

In a shocker, I think this team may flirt with .500 this season.  I have no idea why, but I just have a feeling. 

Rule V Prediction

Here is my lowly guess at who the Pittsburgh Pirates grab with the second pick of the rule V draft:

Brian Barton, an outfielder in the Indians system. He is a 5 tool guy, with a few questions attached to his demeanor. The next time you hear "it doesn't take a rocket scientist" to play for the Pirates. Well, this kid had an aerospace engineering major at Miami.

He is 25 and had a knee injury in 2006, but is definitely worth a gamble. At his age and his performance level, he may be ready to play in MLB right now. I don't see wasting a bench spot on him him being an issue, he will contribute.

Like I said, this is a guess. I have no solid insight, and no idea what the Pirates will do. I just know Huntington said they would make a selection. Oh, did I mention the kid is in the Cleveland system, someone Huntington knows a little about.

A link to Barton's stats at The Baseball Cube:
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Brian-Barton-3.shtml

Pittsburgh Pirates: 2007 and Beyond Part 4

This is the 4th in a series of articles that will take look at the current state and the future state of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The articles will be broken out into three parts: what should happen, what will happen and what could happen.  We'll take a look at each position in the franchise covering where they are, where they will be and where they should be.

Where there was a plethora of options for right field, center is not quite as deep:

Chris Duffy

Nate McLouth

Jose Bautista

Jose Castillo (? according to ESPN)

Xavier Nady

Andrew McCutchen

 

Duffy started the season as THE center fielder.  McCutchen is the future.  Bautista has played there the last two seasons.  Jose Castillo is listed on ESPN, but I cant see that one.  Nady has played center this year.  McLouth has been steady since Duffy went down and Davis was traded.

 

What Should Happen

I called for McLouth, early in the preseason, to be the starting center fielder. 

Duffy has been fragile his entire career.

Bautista, as I said about right field, needs to stay at third. 

Castillo would be better in a corner outfield spot or at short. 

Nady is too tentative when he plays center.

McCutchen isn't ready yet, it will likely 2009 before he will take over an outfield spot.

Where is this one leaving us?  McLouth, based on the current roster, is the best choice for now.  He simply plays a good defense, case in point are the plays he has made on caroms off the wall in the last couple games.  The more he plays, the better he gets defensively, something to do with getting comfortable with the position.

McLouth has proven he hits well when getting regular playing time.  His base running,  more precisely his base stealing success rate, makes him dangerous every time he gets on base.  He may not have the speed nor range of Duffy, but he stays healthy and has more power.  McLouth can get on base at a better rate and with more consistency than Duffy, making him a better fit at the top of the order.  One area McLouth needs to improve is his aggressiveness when on first by taking second early in the count and getting in scoring position.

Duffy would be best served as a 4th outfielder or used to bring some additional talent to the team.  A leadoff hitter with his speed is enticing to many teams.  He reminds me of Scott Podsednik in durability and speed. 

 

What Will Happen

McCutchen will be given every opportunity in spring to take the position, hopefully he is not rushed to Pittsburgh.  McLouth will start the 2008 season as the starting center fielder.  Duffy will be his backup and McCutchen will get a full season in AAA. 

 

What Could Happen

Don't expect a trade for a center fielder nor a free agent signing with McCutchen so close to the majors.  If a deal would happen, McCutchen would be moved to a corner outfield position depending on who was landed.  Too much is being banked on McCutchen for them to make a deal that blocks him.

McLouth could prove he is an everyday center fielder, he is only 25,  and that could allow the Pirates to make a shocking deal.  More on that in coming days.

 

Odds

I'd give McLouth a 80% chance of being handed the job going into spring training.  He would get a 90% probability of starting the season as the center fielder.

McCutchen will get every opportunity to take an outfield position.  He will have a late season call up likely this season and in 2008.  I'll give him a 5% chance of taking the centerfield job in 2008.  Odds on 2009 are about 50% right now, depending on his progression in AAA in 2008 that percentage will either rise significantly or stay where it is.  He will be up for good at the latest sometime in 2009, the question is when.

Duffy has a very slight chance of being the starting center fielder let alone remaining on the Pirates.  I'll give him a 10% chance of starting in center and a 50% chance of being traded.  A trade could be the best thing to happen to him, he likely needs a change of scenery and a good trainer to keep him healthy.  His defense is too good, if his bat could only come around on a consistent basis and he could stay healthy he would be an ideal option on almost any team.

 

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 2007 and Beyond Part 3

This is the 3rd in a series of articles that will take look at the current state and the future state of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The articles will be broken out into three parts: what should happen, what will happen and what could happen.  We'll take a look at each position in the franchise covering where they are, where they will be and where they should be.

The Pirates have a plethora of right field options, the list includes:

Xavier Nady

Ryan Doumit

Nate McLouth

Jose Bautista

Brad Eldred

Jose Castillo

Josh Phelps

Matt Kata

Steven Pearce

 

The top 5 in the list have started games in RF for the Pirates this season, the rest have yet to start in right, but they have been either been rumored to play or have been a sub a some point during the season.  Pearce is the only player on the list that has yet to make an appearance in Pittsburgh.  September is coming, and so should Pearce.  Pearce is a first baseman who can play right in a pinch, he is currently blocked at first by Adam LaRoche, so right is where he has the best opportunity to join the team in the near future.

Two players not mentioned are Chris Duffy and Andrew McCutchen.  McCutchen is slotted for center, so I have left him out considering the sheer number of right fielders available.  Duffy is allegedly a center fielder as well, or should I say when healthy he is a center fielder.

Jason Bay may even be considered at some point in the not so distant future.  Why Bay?  Considering how he seems to have lost a step, moving him to a much smaller right field would hide what is becoming a weakness in his game...his range. 

Needless to say, there are a lot of corner outfielders in the mix.  Something has to give, the log jam keeps getting more backed up.  This could be seen as an issue, but I look at it another way.  There is at least some talent available, something that has been sorely lacking in the last 15 years.

 

What Should Happen

Nady is the logical choice. 

Doumit should focus more on catching, he has played well in right but needs an every day position and not be part of a 10 player platoon.

McLouth is establishing himself as the center fielder until McCutchen is ready.

Bautista needs to stay at third.

Eldred needs to be able to hit MLB pitching.

Phelps doesn't have the experience right now.  He has a great approach to being a pinch hitter and fills that role too well to consider him an every day solution.

Kata and Castillo are bench players right now.  Castillo has a better shot at short than in the outfield.

Steven Pearce hasn't proved he is a major league talent yet, he may end up being no more than Eldred has been so far...A minor league masher.

So where does this leave us?  Nady in RF?  He is the best option and has been the most consistent everyday power threat on the team this year.  Really he has been the Pirates MVP for 2007.  He has proven he is not merely a platoon player, he is an everyday player.

What should happen?  A move of Bay to right field?  There is more to this statement coming in a couple days, but for now I will say Nady is the option until someone else can prove they can play there daily or a trade is made.  I am hoping for Pearce, he would be a nice presence in the middle of the lineup provided he can hit in the majors, but I am not holding my breath on seeing him regularly before 2009. 

 

What Will Happen

Right field is Nady's domain.  No question.  The problem with Nady is his health.  There needs to be a suitable option to back him up.  There are plenty of options available as backups, look at the list.  Right now, Doumit is the alternate right fielder, provided he is healthy.

 

What Could Happen

I will continue to hint at this, but the right trade or signing could make right field someone else's domain.  Potentially Bay could shift to right with Nady taking over in left.  True Nady doesn't have the range of a healthy Bay, but Bay hasn't seemed fully healthy in the last couple seasons.  As I said earlier, Bay moving to right could be possible.  McCutchen could also take over in left if Bay is moved, but that is a few years away.

 

Odds

Nady is the Pirates right fielder for the next couple seasons, at least through 2009. 

Pearce has a 50-50 shot of making the team as a right fielder in 2008.  Likely they will keep him from the 2008 roster to save on service time and bring him up in 2009.  Remember he has made a quantum leap this season going from high A to AAA over the course of the year.  He can't be ready now, can he?  Regardless of his bat, he needs to play daily and get more reps in right before he can legitimately make the MLB roster.

Doumit will play in RF, but he is the new Craig Wilson with a better arm.

The field will make up the rest, but primarily as backups to Nady.

 

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 2007 and Beyond Part 2

This is the second in a series of articles that will take look at the current state and the future state of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The articles will be broken out into three parts: what should happen, what will happen and what could happen.  We'll take a look at each position in the franchise covering where they are, where they will be and where they should be.

 

Director of Player Development Brian Graham and Director of Scouting Ed Creech should both be sweating profusely now that McClatchy is gone.  Creech has set this team back 10 years in his time in Pittsburgh.  For the very few talented players Creech and his staff have identified, Graham's department has completely botched their development. 

Of the Scouting department, the only scout I could see staying on the staff is Gayo.  He has not had enough time to prove his worth, I would give him at least two more seasons before I would give him a grade.  Right now he has earned a pass with a Barry (*).

 

Jim Tracy and his staff could be in for a shakeup when/if Littlefield is sent packing.  Competent GM's bring in their own man rather than inheriting their predecessors  leftovers.  I was never a big Tracy fan, I won't lie about that.  He has had a 124-167 record, as of this writing, with the Pirates.  His poor record is in part to the lack of talent on the team Littlefield has molded.   

 

What Should Happen

Even though I am not a Tracy fan, I think he and his staff should stay on.  Colborn has actually done a nice job with the pitching staff.  Recently Maholm has rediscovered his touch, Snell and Gorzy have been solid most of the year and Morris is a decent addition even though the Pirates overpaid for him.  The bullpen has done a nice job recently, now that all the pieces have been found.  Early in the year the bullpen struggled, with the hodgepodge  of arms thrown at the wall, it was no wonder the pen struggled.  Nobody could have molded that group into anything constructive.

Creech is history.

 

What Will Happen

Tracy and his crew will be released upon the naming of a new GM.  Littlefield's successor will want to bring in someone he works well with, or interview to find that manager.  Tracy may have to interview for his own job if he wants to stay with the team.  No I am not saying he will need to send off a resume, I am just implying he needs to kiss a lot of GM butt to keep his current gig.  If he stays, some of his staff is gone.

Creech is history.  Most of the front office will be gone when Littlefield is gone.

 

What Could Happen

The Astros release of Phil Garner plays right into the hands of Nutting.  He has pushed for the Pirates to embrace their past and become more of a "Family" if you will.  Who better to coach a team that you want to relive it's past glory than old Scraps?  Imagine the bobble head possibilities?  Garner has had a lot of success with young teams, even success with bad teams.  Phil has been able to get all his teams to play above their heads until their heads get too large.  In Milwaukee he made a bad team look respectable.  In Houston, he took a team that didn't deserve to be in the playoff to the World Series.  In Detroit, he got some bad teams to play well over their heads.

One common thing in Garner's managerial career, if he had decent pitching, he could get a team to win.  The Pirates, if nothing else, have some pitching talent.

It is possible Littlefield stays.  The new CEO might want to take a look at Littlefield's performance, making a judgement after he see's what is delivered in 2008. 

 

Odds

Garner will never be the Pirates manager, it would be nice to see Scraps back in Black and Gold.  It would be mandatory to have at least one throwback Pillbox Hat game a month.  Sounds like a Hollywood screen play: the 2nd baseman of the last championship team come back 30 years later to rescue a flailing franchise.  Garner is a long shot at best.

Tracy will likely get a couple more seasons, until a new GM has his fingerprints all over this team and has molded it into the team he envisions.  That is when the new GM will go out and get his guy, if he doesn't bring his own guy with him from the start.  Tracy is 50-50 to stay.  Same odds go for a new GM's manager coming in with the GM.

Creech simply must go.  He sounds like a character from "Saved by the Bell" and apparently has the same skill at finding talent.

Graham could survive, based on the success the Minors have had in recent years.  Of course that success was largely due to a group of 30-somethings playing in AA.

 

In Pittsburgh Pirates: 2007 and Beyond Part 3, I'll take a look at right field since it has the biggest log jam at the MLB level.  Each following article will work through each position eventually getting to the rotation and the bullpen.  It may be Wednesday before Part 3 post makes the web.  I need to grab some stats to back my thoughts, or at least change my mind.

 

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Pittsburgh Pirates: 2007 and Beyond Part 1

This is the first in a series of articles that will take look at the current state and the future state of the Pittsburgh Pirates.  The articles will be broken out into three parts: what should happen, what will happen and what could happen.  We'll take a look at each position in the franchise covering where they are, where they will be and where they should be.

 

The obvious start is the front office.  With the resignation of Kevin McClatchy, a void is left in the front office.  This makes a trickle down affect throughout the entire structure of the organization from scouting to coaching.  The entire future of the franchise lies in the hands of one man.  Robert Nutting.

Robert Nutting has stated he is a one man committee that will choose the successor to Kevin McClatchy.  McClatchy is owed a great deal of thanks for keeping the Pirates in Pittsburgh by each and every fan, his failure was simply not fielding a winning team and mismanagement of the organization with poor decisions in hiring the right people in the most important positions.  Regardless, McClatchy should receive a standing ovation the last home game of the season for keeping this team in Pittsburgh.

His successor has an easy decision on the general managers position, Dave Littlefield should be gone as soon as the new CEO of Baseball Operations is named, preferably at the press conference announcing the new CEO.  Under the Littlefield regime, the Pirates have drafted poorly by taking safe picks rather than the best pick.  Other failures under Littlefield include the Rule V fiasco, the scrap heap signings of aged vets who were well past their prime and the poorest of trades. 

Littlefield can be credited with acquiring some talent, namely LaRoche, Bay, Nady and Sanchez, as well as drafting a slew of left handed pitchers to the point the Pirates are one of the few teams looking for right handed help when every other team is looking for lefties.

Littlefields' lack of vision to trade away some of the young arms for positional help in the minors is his downfall.  He has continued to acquiore middle relievers and additional arms in nearly every trade.

Under Littlefield there has been no direction to the franchise, no goals set and no improvement in his time in the GM's chair.  The only measuring stick the Pirates have used in recent years is "improvement" over previous seasons.  They have failed even in that aspect.

 

What Should Happen

Nutting should be looking for someone who loves Pittsburgh, the Pirates and Baseball.  Forget the old boy network wanting a "baseball man".  Get someone in who is a good to great evaluator of talent.  Someone who can make the tough decisions and not look back.  Nutting needs to select someone who will immediately command respect and bring back some respectability to this franchise.

Steer clear of the inexperienced assistants.  That is how we got DL for target practice.

 

What Will Happen

Nutting will look for the classic "baseball man".  Numerous rumors are floating around about who he is considering.  He has met with at least one "baseball man", the Boston Herald is reporting Dan Duquette has already met with Nutting.  Duquette is the man responsible for getting Martinez, Ramirez, Varitek, Damon, Wakefield and Lowe to Boston.  They were the core of talent that brought Boston the World Series in 2004.  Duquette wanted to get  more into the business side of baseball when he was fired by Boston.

Prior to Duquette taking the reigns in Boston, he was the general manager of the Montreal Expos.  He is definitely use to working with a tight budget and is a good evaluator of talent.  The question with Duquette is whether he would want to be both CEO and GM?  Would he be willing to work under the tightest of budgets that the Nuttings love to hand down?

 

What Could Happen

A magician is what this team needs.  Maybe David Copperfield could come in and make the last 15 seasons disappear?  He may be able to make the Statue of Liberty disappear, but even he wouldn't be able to pull that one off.

Maybe an entertainer needs to come in with Pittsburgh roots?  Remember the bobble head boxes say "We Will...Entertain."  Obviously someone with a sense of humor would be good considering how this franchise has been a joke for 15 seasons.  How about Dennis Miller?  He has tried football commentator, talk show host, actor, stand up, Saturday Night Live.  No, he is too intelligent for that.

Someone with a financial interest could be entertained.  Everyone loves to mention Mark Cuban.  He would only be a good candidate if he had financial interest in the team, interest in the way of majority owner.  Cuban is not the type to take direction from anyone, let alone a Nutting.

Where does this leave us?  A GM wanting to have the power to control a team?  A VP wanting to step up to the title of CEO?  Gerry Hunsicker has been mentioned as a possible candidate, he is currently a VP in the Devil Rays organization. 

 

Odds

 The odds on favorite is Duquette.  This is the role he wanted in Boston and he wants to get back into baseball.  It wouldn't be the worst move, but it is the safest move.

 

In Pittsburgh Pirates: 2007 and Beyond Part 2, I'll take a look at manager and scouting.  Part 3 will be the start of position players, we will start with right field since it has the biggest log jam at the MLB level.  Each following article will work through each position eventually getting to the rotation and the bullpen.

 

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Second Half, er, Last 65 Game Preview

I was planning a wonderful second half preview, full of optimism and angst. 

 

After the wonderful start to the second half, well let's just say there is plenty of angst to post.  The Pirates have started the second half 1-8.  What more can be said? 

 

What I was looking for was a strong start to the second half building off of a nice ending to the first half.  I was hoping for a nice run of 7-2 in the first home stand of the second half and be talking about sniffing .500. 

 

Needless to say, 1-8 shot that to hell.

 

What I am going to do is give lists of:

Five things to watch for in the second half.

Five things to be wary of in the second half.

Five moves to pay attention to in the second half.

Five things to watch for in the second half.

1. Bay, Nady and LaRoche getting hot together.  So far this season we have not seen all three hitting at the same time.  Nady has been the MVP of the team so far offensively, not really saying much, but he has handled the bat well.  LaRoche was coming on as the first half wound down.  Bay was as cold as he could be for June which has carried over into July.  IF all three get to swinging well, the offense will be something fun to watch as opposed to the brutal showing they have had since the break.  Will they ever hit together?
2. Starting pitching.  It is easy to point out the two headed ace of Snell and Gorzelanny.  Maholm seems to have found the flaw in his mechanics and is looking like the Maholm we saw when he first came up to the Bucs.  Youman has been solid since his call up, likely solidifying a spot on the staff in 2008.  He is so level headed no matter the situation he is in.  Allegedly JVB has worked out his kinks by keeping his weight back when throwing his pitches and will be a key to watch in the second half.  Will the starting pitching be solid in the second half?
3. Will Duke be healthy and back to the stud of 2 years ago?  He was scheduled to do his first long toss Monday.  A key to the Pirates success in 2008 is Duke getting his aggressive approach back and work the entire plate.  Will he get back on the mound or is this another pitching prospect that lands on the shelf after rehab fails and surgery is required?
4. Who will take McClatchy's spot?  I nominate myself, sending my resume as we speak.  This one move will be the key to the Pirates future success.  If it is a Nutting-Buddy that is names, expect another 15 years of pain.  How many mirrors has this team broke to earn this much bad luck?
5. Freddy will make a run.  Sanchez will make a last gasp effort to defend his batting title.

Five things to be wary of in the second half.

1. Trades.  Littlefield is bound and determined to move Jack Wilson and pitching to stock the team full of offensive players.  He will set the Pirates back another couple years with his upcoming moves.  My bowels make better movements that this franchise has in the last 15 years.
2. It will be announce that Bay has played a good portion of the season injured.  I am guessing his knee is bothering him again, but would not be surprised at a shoulder injury.  The guy never misses a game and has sat out quite a few games lately.
3. The bullpen.  Recently they have performed well enough to be considered a bullpen again.  For a good portion of the first half, they were better described as kerosene.
4. Paulino's demise.  At some point Doumit will be designated the future behind the plate.  Paulino is suffering through his sophomore slump, if he does not adjust, he will be relegated to a backup role at best. 
5. After the naming of the new CEO of baseball operations, look for DL to resign.  It won't be an immediate resignation, he will make a few more bad trades before leaving.  He wouldn't want to ruin his legacy by having Izturis be his last move.  This also depends on who takes the CEO position.

Five moves to pay attention to in the second half.

1. Izturis being moved to second base.  Freddy will be moved to third to help solidify the defense behind the pitchers.  Sadly, this will also improve the offense over Kata and Kelly playing third.
2. Jose Catillo traded for a low level minor league middle reliever never to be heard from again.  Castillo will go on to be an offensive spark plug for years to come on the team he is traded to, realizing that awesome power we are always told will come.
3. Jack Wilson traded.  The gamble will be Bixler being ready to step in.  As insurance the Pirates will exercise their option on Izturis or sign him for two or three years.
4. A starting pitcher being traded.  Everyone wants to talk about Snell being traded, but he is the only right-hander in the rotation.  I would look more towards one of the older "prospects" to be moved.  Even worse, a left handed pitcher being moved for another power bat.  What lefty would draw a potent bat?  I'll give you a hint, his nick name is very close to the nickname of the pitcher traded for LaRoche, you remember Gonzo...Gorzo could be next.  This will be yet another bad deal in the illustrious history of the current ownership group.
5. Bullpen arms left and right.  I would expect at least two of the following to be traded by the true trade deadline: Marte, Torres, Kuwata, Grabow and Chacon.  Kuwata would be a favor to get him some playoff chase experience in his last hoorah as a professional pitcher.  The rest would be a nice addition to any bullpen, Grabow and Marte could land the best return.  The only one I would say is a definite to be traded is Chacon.

The second half could be interesting, some additional predictions for the second half:

1. McLouth may be landing the starting CF job until someone is traded for or McCutchen gets the call up.  You know the call up is coming before it should happen.  Duffy is toast and could be traded to a team in need of a leadoff bat.
2. Bixler will arrive soon and struggle immediately.  He is closer that McCutchen, but neither is ready.
3. At least one pitcher will be sat down with a tired arm before August 20th.  Gorzy?
4. Jim Tracy will briefly show emotion before falling asleep on the bench.
5. The middle three in the order will get hot for a 10 game stretch where the Pirates win 9 of 10 to show signs of "growth" and build
6. false expectation going into 2008.
7. Jack Wilson will get his arse kicked by a peanut vendor.

My final prediction is 73 wins, down from my 75-78 win preseason guess.

 

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2007 MLB Predictions

Well, I had this partially ready a week ago...If Disney didn't hamstring me. Pick me apart in the comments section. Without further ado...Here are my 2007 Predictions Sure to be Wrong:

AL EAST
Boston
NY Yankees
Toronto
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

Reasoning: With Papelbon closing, the Red Sox are a much stronger pitching staff. They can hit with the Yankees and have a better pitching rotation top to bottom.

AL CENTRAL
Minnesota
Detroit
Cleveland
Chicago Sox
Kansas City

Reasoning: Throw a blanket over the top 4 teams, Minnesota wins because of their bullpen. Joe Nathan makes the difference in this division.

AL WEST
LA Angels
Oakland
Texas
Seattle

Reasoning: Any team can win this division, it will come down to deadline deals and no team is deeper in the minors than the Angels.


NL EAST
NY Mets
Atlanta
Philadelphia
Florida
Washington

Reasoning: I am not sold on the Mets rotation, but they can put up some runs. The rest of the division is suspect, only Atlanta could challenge the Mets if they stay healthy with the Jones'.

NL CENTRAL
Milwaukee
Chicago Cubs
Houston
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati

Reasoning: Milwaukee has the best rotation, but any team in the division could win 90 as easily as they could lose 90.

NL WEST
San Diego
LA Dodgers
Arizona
San Francisco
Colorado

Reasoning: It is all about the rotation. Pitching will win the division for the Padres. LA and SF rely too much on aging vets.


NL Wild Card - Atlanta
AL Wild Card - Detroit
NL Pennant - NY Mets
AL Pennant - LA Angels

World Series Champ - LA Angels

Surprise Team - Milwaukee
Disappointing Team - St Louis
Surprise Player - Xavier Nady
Underachiever - Dice K

AL MVP - A-Rod
NL MVP - David Wright
AL Cy Young - Roy Halladay
NL Cy Young - Carlos Zambrano
AL ROY - Delmon Young
NL ROY - Andy LaRoche

2007 Pirates Season Preview

The Manager:
Jim Tracy enters his second season at the helm of the Pirates Ship. He has a career record of 494-478 after a 67-95 season with the Pirates in 2006.

Additions and Subtractions:
For most of the offseason, it looked as if the biggest addition to the Pirates was the subtraction of Burnitz, Santos and Randa. That all changed when Mike Gonzalez was traded to Atlanta for Adam "Lefty McThump" LaRoche. This one trade has done more for this team than anything this ownership group has done in the the last 14 years. Finally the Pirates have a lefthanded bat in the middle of the order to protect and offset Bay.

The signing of Tony Armas Jr. has the potential to make this rotation solid from top to bottom. For most of the Dave Littlefield years, he has picked the scrap heap for any retread with a hint of usefulness left. All too often this landed a Burnitz rather than actually improving the team for the future. Armas is young enough to fit in well with the team, but is also experienced enough to lend that "experienced veteran" factor to a very young rotation.

Pitching:
The rotation will be young and unproven, but it will have a wealth of potential and left handed arms all the way down to AA Altoona. The Pirates are just the opposite of nearly every MLB team, where most are looking for lefties, the Pirates need right handed pitchers. The rotation will likely look like this:

Duke (L)
Snell (R)
Maholm (L)
Armas (R)
Gorzelanny (L)

IN THE WINGS FOR THE ROTATION:
Chacon (R)
Burnett (L)
McLeary (R)
Youman (L)
Bullington (R)
Van Benschoten (R)
Kuwata (R)
Hererra (R)
Lincoln (R)

Lineup:
The Lineup should be fairly consistent this season. Bay and LaRoche may swap slots occasionally and the 3B situation is still up in the air.

Duffy CF
Wilson SS
Sanchez 2B
LaRoche 1B
Bay LF
Nady RF
Paulino C
Bautista/Castillo 3B

Bullpen:
The Pirates will take 12 pitchers north, there is plenty of bullpen help throughout the minors thanks to Littlefields addiction to middle relievers.

Torres CL
Capps RSU
Grabow LSU
Kolb (R)
Marte (L)
Chacon (R)
Pick one:Sharpless/Youman/McLeary/Rogers/Bayliss

Bench:
The way Eldred has played this spring, he may see some time at 1B and RF, if he heads north.

Doumit C
Eldred 1B/RF
Jose ? (Castillo or Bautista) IF/OF
Matos OF
Ryan OF

Other possibilities:
McLouth OF, Cota C, Diaz C, Kelly IF

Prospects to Watch:
Andrew McCutchen CF - You will see him in CF by the end of the year. He will start the year at AA. He could make the jump right now, based on his spring performance. more time in the minors will serve him well.

Neil Walker 3B - Will get a late season call up, but will spend the year in AA/AAA learning 3B after the switch from C. He might be in Pittsburgh permanently in 2008 at the earliest.

Brad Lincoln P - He will spend the year in the Minors, look for him to spend a majority of the year in AA.

Brian Bixler SS - He will spend some time at AA but I look for him to be in AAA most of the year. He is not as flashy as Jack Wilson, but is a solid SS who will be Jacks replacement in the next couple years. I actually rate him on the same level, if not higher, than Lillibridge who was traded to Atlanta in the LaRoche deal.

Altoona may have a better team than their MLB affiliate in Pittsburgh. I would love to see a Altoona vs Pittsburgh series to see who would win.

Five Wild Cards:

1. Chris Duffy - The offense starts and stops with his ability to get on base in the lead off spot.
2. Jose ? - Which Jose is the wild card? The one that does not start of course. That Jose will be the one filling in playing super sub throughout the season. He must be sound defensively an be able to handle the unpredictability of the role.
3. Brad Eldred - He is the biggest wild card in terms of possible changes to the team. IF he makes the team, there is a ton of power on the bench. IF he makes the trip north, Doumit will be the backup catcher. With Doumit primarily being the backup catcher, neither Cota nor Diaz has a spot on the team if Eldred makes the team. Doumit is relegated to third string 1B and RF in addition to backup backstop.
4. Adam LaRoche - LaRoche must be able to handle the cleanup spot and play 1B daily. If he struggles, the team struggles and Littlefield will be history.
5. Tony Armas Jr. - If he regains his form of 2001-2002, the Pirates have the steal of the 2006-2007 offseason.
   

Five Keys To The Season:

1. The rotation must improve across the board from last seasons performance. This team is built around a concept of a solid rotation. The starters have to find a way to go six inning every outing. In 2006 the Pirates were 46-44 when the starters went at least 6 innings.
2. Chris Duffy must prove himself capable of handling the rigors of a complete MLB season. He must grow into a solid MLB leadoff hitter while maintaining his defensive prowess. If he fails, someone must fill the role more than adequately, look to Matos/McLouth/McCutchen.
   
3. Jack "Flab" must get back to "Flash". The defense up the middle needs to be strong. The rotation is not a strikeout group, they need a strong defense behind them.
4. Right field needs to become a strong point, whether through a platoon or Nady just owning the position. The position must be defensively stable and a offensive force. Nady must also be healthy. Eldred, Doumit and Ryan could be part of this mix as well. Castillo? Regardless it must work out.
5. Paulino, Doumit, Eldred, Duffy, Bautista or Castillo. Two of the mentioned must have breakout years. Paulino needs to show some offensive power while maintaining his approach with the pitching staff. The rest must establish themselves as major leaguers.

Fantasy Watch:
Unlike previous seasons, there are a few Pirates worth considering in most any league.

Jason Bay, OF:
The obvious first choice is Jason Bay. Look for another 30 HR 100 RBI season from him. His average will be in the .280-.300 zone.

Adam LaRoche, 1B:
For 81 games, he will have a short porch in right to look at. He should be able to post 35+ HR's and drive in 100.

Freddy Sanchez, 2B/3B:
Freddy will give another .300 performance. He will score runs ahead of Bay and LaRoche and have an opportunity to drive in some runs batting in the 3 spot. The fear here is health, but I don't feel it should be a major concern.

Salomon Torres, CL:
Torres will get better as the season progresses. If you can pick him up cheap early in the season, it will pay off later in the year.

Zach Duke:
He will be consistent, a good overall pitcher to round out your starting rotation.

Ian Snell:
He will give you some strikeouts and wins, his ERA may leave a bit to be desired. When he is on, he is lights out.

Prediction:

This team has 75-78 wins written all over it. The rotation is still young enough there will be bumps in the road. The offense is greatly improved over the team that went north in 2006.

With the strength of the NL Central, any team in the division could win as many as 90. But every team in the division could easily lose 90 too. Who stays healthy and makes the right moves at the deadline will win the division. With Littlefields history, I would have to bet on another sub .500 season.