1) The rotation must improve across the board from last seasons performance. This team is built around a concept of a solid rotation. The starters have to find a way to go six inning every outing. In 2006 the Pirates were 46-44 when the starters went at least 6 innings.
2) Chris Duffy must prove himself capable of handling the rigors of a complete MLB season. He must grow into a solid MLB leadoff hitter while maintaining his defensive prowess.
3) Jack "Flab" must get back to "Flash". The defense up the middle needs to be strong. The rotation is not a strikeout group, they need a strong defense behind them.
4) Right field needs to become a strong point, whether through a platoon or Nady just owning the position. The position must be defensively stable and a offensive force. IF Gerut is healthy, a platoon of he and Nady could go a long way to making this happen. Nady must also be healthy. Doumit could be part of this mix as well. Castillo? Regardless it must work out.
5) Paulino, Doumit, Duffy, Bautista or Castillo. Two of the mentioned must have breakout years. Paulino needs to show some offensive power while maintaining his approach with the pitching staff. The rest must establish themselves as major leaguers.
BONUS Key:
The team must stay healthy. There is very little depth in the organization outside middle reliever and catcher.
If all the above "Keys" happen. This team could finally break out of its streak of futility and finish at or above .500.
6 comments:
I think Duffy's success is the most important here. I think his terrible start followed by the "break" he took in the middle of the season was the largest factor in the 95 loss 2006 season.
Matt
Wait 'Til Next Year
P.S. I see #2 on your list coming true in 2007.
Matt
Wait 'Til Next Year
The upcoming Round Table will give my answers to the Duffy issue. I still see this team, if they get 3 of the 5 keys, will be lucky to have 78 wins.
One exception to my statement, if the starters go deep into games and stay healthy, that will be the most important thing. Without good to stellar performances from the starting pitchers, we are looking at another 95 loss season.
Great list, Dave. Too bad so much needs to happen just for this group to put together a mediocre season.
I agree that pitching and defense is the key--I'm much less concerned about the offense than I have been in the past. I just can't see us getting a full year of health from the Big Four. Defense at 3B is the biggest question mark if Freddy moves, I think.
Pessimistic outlook, but I think we'll struggle to finish 4th in the division.
With 3 hops that go the Pirates way, they make it to .500 with my pessimism.
I agree it will be hard for the Big Four to stay healthy. Luckily we have so many young pitchers coming back from injury that should be ready by mid-season.
Third base I am not worried about, even if Freddy moves. Bautista can handle the hot corner, he proved that while Castillo was benched at the end of the year.
I am fairly confident Castillo has grown into a better fit as a third baseman. I am sure Castillo has the arm for third.
Who do you see finish 5th and 6th then?
As far as defense: I agree that Bautista and Castillo have the skills. I'm worried about consistency, though. Will they be able to do it for a full year? You know, pretty much, what everyone else in the lineup will do.
I figure at best we're 4th. The Reds are the cellar-dwellers. If the Astros don't get production out of Ensberg and Lane/Scott and Jennings and Williams struggle in the rotation, they could slip, too.
If I had to predict an order of finish, I'd go:
1. Cubs (tough core)
2. Brewers (lots of young talent)
3. Cards (rotation--move up with Weaver)
4. Astros (too old)
5. Bucs (lots of mediocre players)
6. Reds (a-w-f-u-l)
We definitely need some bounces to go our way if we're going to see marked improvements, especially in a tough NL.
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